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Summary

International Relations Class 03

## SHOULD INDIA SUPPORT THE DISINTEGRATION OF PAKISTAN? (5:05 PM):

- Supporting the disintegration of Pakistan would go against Indian national interests.
- Pakistan is a dysfunctional state even today with widespread lawlessness.
- However, its **Balkanization** would lead to greater chaos and instability along India's western borders.
- A similar thing has happened with Pakistan because of the instability in Afghanistan.
- The situation would not be comparable to secession issues in Indian North East.
- This is because most secession demands in North East like the **Greater Nagalim** have died off.
- Also, secession issues in Pakistan- Balochistan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, etc. are due to Pakistani misgovernance and not due to Indian intervention.
- Internationally isolating Pakistan is also not a possibility because:
- I. Pakistan is a pivot state due to its location in the Indian Ocean.
- II. It also shares a long border with Afghanistan.
- III. It is located in proximity to important geo-political centers like Iran & Central Asia.
- IV. It shares an all-weather friendship with China which is a rising superpower with a revisionist approach.
- China and Pakistan define their friendship as ' Taller than Himalayas, deeper than oceans & sweeter than honey'.

## Kashmir Issue:

- Kashmir is believed as the major issue between India and Pakistan.
- Pakistan is very invested in Kashmir because of three reasons:
- I. Occupation of Kashmir is as per the foundational idea of Pakistan- a Muslim-majority province would never choose to be with a secular India.
- II. Kashmir is very significant geopolitically because it connects Central Asia and South Asia.
- III. Kashmir is the location of many important rivers, especially Indus which drains much of Pakistan.

## Some viewpoints on the issue:

- Pakistan seeks a plebiscite in Kashmir, as suggested by UNO after the 1948 war.
- India rejects the idea of a plebiscite because the demography has substantially changed and the present-day plebiscite would not reflect the original opinion.
- Pakistan seeks third-party intervention to solve the issue.
- India rejects the proposal as the proposal goes against the **Shimla Agreement of 1972.**
- Pakistan rejects this provision of the agreement as the agreement was signed after Pakistan was undergoing large loss and humiliation.
- India mentions that the **Lahore Resolution** 1999 also reiterated that India and Pakistan will solve their mutual differences only through bilateral mechanisms.

## SOME ALTERNATE VIEWPOINTS (5:30 PM):

- Former Indian Prime Minister **Atal Bihari Vajpayee** held that any solution must be reached only through **Insaniyat, Jamhooriyat & Kashmiriyat.**
- This would involve humanity, democracy, and the voice of the Kashmiri population.
- Former Indian Prime Minister **Dr. Manmohan Singh** gave the idea of having a **Soft Border**for Jammu & Kashmir.
- A soft border would enable free movement across the borders.

## Gilgit History:

- Gilgit was part of the princely state of Jammu & Kashmir but was ruled directly by the British.
- British who had taken it on lease from Hari Singh, the Hindu ruler of the Muslim-majority state.
- When Hari Singh acceded to India on October 26, 1947, the ****Gilgit Scouts**** rose in rebellion, led by their British commander.
- The Gilgit Scouts also moved to take over ****Baltistan,**** which was then part of Ladakh, and captured ****Skardu, Kargil, and Dras.****
- In battles thereafter, Indian forces retook Kargil and Dras in August 1948.
- **Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir** has had a separate constitution since 1975; though being indirectly controlled by Pakistan.
- **Gilgit-Baltistan**is directly administered by Pakistan.
- Former Pakistani PM **Imran Khan**had expressed that Pakistan wishes to give provisional provincial status to Gilgit-Baltistan.
- This was done to maintain the "disputed " status of the region in front of UNO.
- Another aim was to reduce the concerns of **China** whose China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project passes through  Gilgit-Baltistan

- ![](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Kashmir_border.JPG)

## Siachin Glacier:

- It is the second-largest non-polar glacier in the world.
- it is the source of the Nubra and Syok Rivers.
- Nubra is a tributary of the Shyok River and Shyok River is a tributary of the Indus River.
- The glacier is identified as the highest battlefield in the world.
- ![](https://www.ias4sure.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/1-17.png)
- The root of the dispute lies in the **Karachi Agreement of** 1949.
- Boundary demarcation has been done only until point **NJ 9842.**
- After the point, the border is mentioned to go "northwards".
- At that time, defining borders after the point was believed to be useless because the region was not hospitable.
- Even the Shimla Agreement of 1972 omitted further demarcation.
- Pakistan believes that after NJ 9842, the border must go in the northeast direction to meet the **Karakoram Pass**.
- Pakistani description would make Siachin a part of Gilgit-Baltistan.
- India believes that after NJ 9842 must go in the northwest direction parallel to higher ridges like **Saltoro Ridge.**
- Indian description would make Siachin a part of Ladakh.
- We saw events of **Cartographic invasion** and **Oropolitics** over Siachin.
- After the 1970s, Pakistan, along with many Western publications began showing Siachin on its official map as its territory.
- Pakistan also started giving mountaineering licenses to western mountaineers.
- In 1984, India knew that the Pakistani Army placed orders for high-altitude mountain gear.
- Under **Operation Meghdoot 1984,** India gained control over the Saltoro Ridge and the Siachin Glacier.

## Concerns regarding Indian control of Siachin:

- Despite the region seeing no cross-border firing, India has lost many soldiers to the climate.
- Temperatures can go 30-50 degrees Celsius below zero degrees.
- Winds can blow as fast as 350 kmph.
- India incurs around 5 crore expenditure per day to maintain soldier presence.
- Soldier presence also affects the ecology of the region.
- Former Prime Minister **Dr. Manmohan Singh** called for creating the region as a research area.
- Many scholars believe that the issue is without any purpose.
- **Stephen Cohen** believes that India and Pakistan are like two bald men fighting over a comb.
- Some scholars believe that the Indian presence at Siachin prevents a two-front attack on Kashmir valley from POK and Shaksgham.
- This claim is contested as the terrain cannot sustain large troops' mobilization.
- Despite both Pakistan and India believing that Siachin must be demilitarized, the dispute is continuing due to mutual distrust.

## THE SIR CREEK DISPUTE (6:05 PM):

- **![](https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/indiatoday/images/story/201212/sircreek02-660_121612014228.jpg)**
- India- red line- boundary should be in the middle.
- Pakistan- greenline- boundary should be eastwards of the channel, so it claims the whole of Sir Creek.
- The issue rose in 1908 for the first time between the Commisionerate of Sindh and Rao Maharaj of Kutch.
- A Government Resolution of 1914 was released on the issue
- India believes that the **Thalweg doctrine** is applicable.
- As per the doctrine, the separation must be at the middle of the navigation channel( deepest point).
- Pakistan maintains that it is marshy and non-navigable, hence the Thalweg doctrine is not applicable.

## Importance of Sir Creek:

- Fishing communities are affected by the loss of livelihood and they get arrested while fishing too far from the Indian coast.
- The region has significant hydrocarbons.
- The attackers of the 26/11 Mumbai attacks traveled through Sir Creek, as the region was under-patrolled.
- Sir Creek can expand the Indian continental shelf and we can hence claim more territorial waters under the **( UNCLOS).**

## Indus Water Treaty (1960):

- It was signed between Pt Nehru and General Ayub Khan and it was mediated by the World Bank.
- Indus Jhelum Chenab(Western rivers)(80% water of Indus river system)- Extensive rights to Pakistan, limited rights to India
- Ravi, Beas, Sutlej (Eastern rivers)- Extensive rights to India, limited rights to Pakistan
- ![](https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/mkPzFPdp_2N1hf4c0r1stihXPRCHT8XpoVRDyulQyoJUB2fsZeu8cHILgPu3wO8N6D7dSijkUYFQWqafO-VnfOowDzWgJQ_RpX4IlRynDYFTYKb6Mfmop_upbKskOQzFTaruImK-xP9XGifodiqNpZRnLEvUH6KOzQB1kA4ayrNGYJa8nuePkIHiadtjrw)
- India can use the western rivers for limited non-consumptive usage to ensure no shortage of water downstream.
- India cannot build storage structures or large hydropower plants, but small run-off river dams can be built.
- The treaty also provides for setting up bodies to look after the related issues.
- The treaty could not be simply abrogated because it is beyond Indian capacity to stop the flow of the mighty Indus River and its tributaries.
- Pakistan has raised issues on many Indian projects like Kishenganga Dam, the Ratle project, etc.
- Pakistan also approached the World Bank to appoint an independent Commission to revisit the treaty.

## INDIA-AFGHANISTAN RELATIONS (6:40 PM):

- **Probable questions:**
- I. What is the Indian position on relations with Afghanistan vis-a-vis the Taliban? Examine the reasons for the same.
- II. Highlighting the significance of Afghanistan for India, compare and contrast India'a current approach towards the Taliban with its historical approach towards the latter.

## Modern History of Afghanistan:

- Afghanistan represents a treacherous terrain where even angels fear to tread.
- History bears testimony to the fact that whenever an empire tried to conquer Afghanistan, it marked the beginning of its decline.
- Be it the Soviet Union, Colonial British Empire, or the current global hegemon USA.

## Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan 1979:

- Soviets had propped up a puppet communist government in Afghanistan.
- As the USA grew apprehensive of increasing Soviet footprint, it started training religious fighters called **Mujahideens** along with Pakistan, to topple the communist government.
- By 1989, the Mujahideens were able to drive USSR out of Afghanistan.
- The primary reason was believed to be played by the **Stringer missiles**(shoulder-mounted rockets).
- However, the communist **Najibullah** government continued in Afghanistan.
- A civil war had started in Afghanistan which lasted till 1992 when the Mujahideen came to power.
- India despite its apprehensions, recognized the Mujahideen government and established diplomatic relations with it.
- The government was very highly influenced by the Pakistani establishment.
- Mujahideens soon started asserting their independence from Pakistan and started seeking good relations with India.
- Islamabad’s security dilemma vis-a-vis India continued.
- Therefore they chose to train another group of religious fighters in the radical  **Wahhabi** ideology against the Mujahideen, which later grew into the Taliban.
- A civil war broke out again in Afghanistan and 1996, the Taliban ousted the Mujahideen.
- The Taliban government was recognized by only three countries in the world- Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and UAE.
- All three countries' elites have maintained kinship ties for a long time.

## 9/11 Attack on the twin towers in the USA:

- Despite being a  prominent participant in both world wars, USA mainland territory had never been attacked.
- USA mainland territory was untouched in both world wars.
- Even **Pearl Harbor** lay in Hawaii, and not on the mainland.
- More than the unprecedented human tragedy, it was a severe blow to the image of the USA as the USA by then had firmly cemented its position as the global hegemon.
- The global war on terror was launched by **George** **Bush** with the message that" You are either with us or against us".
- The USA chose Pakistan over India as a partner in the mission due to the inevitable role Pakistan can play regarding supplies due to being coterminous with Afghanistan.
- Osama Bin Laden, the leader of Al Qaeda was given a haven by the Taliban, and hence the Taliban regime was attacked.
- By 2001, the Taliban was ousted from Kabul, and **Hamid Karzai** was instilled as the interim President of Afghanistan.
- Taliban was removed from Kabul, but Taliban was not decimated and Taliban dispersed to various other parts of Afghanistan.
- **Ashraf Ghani** came to power in 2014.
- The USA was engaged in a protracted war in Afghanistan for almost 2 decades.
- Public opinion in the USA was turning against the war due to the high loss of US lives and resources.
- President Barrack Obama had distinguished Iraq as an evil war, while the war in Afghanistan was necessary.
- Donald Trump's election promises included removal from Afghanistan.
- The US forces were given a free hand to go after the Taliban, and Pakistan was identified as a key reason behind the prolonging of the war.
- Pakistan was told to mend its ways or lose financial assistance.
- Pakistan which was vital for supplies continued to share intelligence.
- However in July 2018, given the impending US presidential elections, as well as the failure of strategy reversed his position.
- Insurgencies and non-state actors that enjoy safe havens are impossible to defeat.
- Thus in 2019, he appointed **Zalmay Khalilzad** as the special representative to Afghanistan with the mandate to end the ongoing war and withdraw USA forces.
- On 15th August 2021, under Joe Biden, the USA vacated Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani fled and the Taliban again occupied Kabul.
- On 17th August 2021, India closed its embassy in Afghanistan and evacuated its personnel.

## Taliban withstood the assaults all the years because :

- Unlike any state, it is difficult to defeat a non-state actor, engaged in the insurgency.
- Such actors can get dismantled and regrouped any number of times at different places with maybe different leaders and participants.
- Pakistan, a major Non-Nato Ally continued to provide safe havens and leak intelligence.

## THE ORIGINAL FOUR OBJECTIVES WERE (7:00 PM):

- I. Total ceasefire from Taliban till the USA withdrawal was complete.
- II. The Taliban must cut all ties with terrorism.
- III. The Taliban must be engaged in an Intra-Afghan dialogue for peaceful withdrawal and governance of Afghan later on.
- IV. Complete withdrawal of USA troops withdrawal.
- Taliban was adamant that it would participate in any Intra-Afghan dialogue only after the USA withdrawal.
- Finally, in **February 2020**, the **Doha deal** was finalized, and in **September 2021**, an Intra Afghan dialogue process commenced.
- However the process was completed earlier, and on 15th August 2021, the Taliban once again took over.
- The USA was perceived to be desperate for a quick withdrawal and seemed to accept any situation.
- Even while the talks were going on, the Taliban was not only regrouping militarily, but it also continued to attack USA establishments and forces.

## Analysis of the events:

- As the USA was withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban continued with its military advances; the intra-Afghan dialogue remained at an impasse.
- Two days after the Taliban occupied Kabul, the Indian government closed its embassy and evacuated its personnel from the country.

## Taliban 2.0 & India:

- In June 2022, India reopened its technical mission in Kabul to :
- I. Provide humanitarian assistance.
- II. Provide Visa and other consular facilities.
- III. To protect Indian investments in Afghanistan.
- India no longer views the Taliban as a terrorist organization but rather considers it as a **quasi-official** entity.
- This is because India has clarified that the Taliban itself is not seen as a threat to India.
- But the Taliban's ties with Pakistan-based jihadi groups like Jaish-E- Mohammad & Lashkar-E-Toiba is a cause of Indian concern.
- The government of India has announced that its foreign policy on Afghanistan would be guided by **UNSC Resolution 2953,**which was adopted during the Indian presidency of the UNSC.

## KEY POINTS OF RESOLUTION 2953 (7:30 PM):

- I. Upholding human rights in Afghanistan.
- II. Afghanistan's territory must not be misused for terrorism.
- III. The negotiated political solution shall be found out of the Afghan crisis.
- India has provided humanitarian assistance to Kabul.
- India provided 50,000 tonnes of wheat, other items, covid vaccines, etc.
- India has provided budgetary assistance to Kabul of $27 million for the financial year 2022-2023.

## Reasons for Indian engagement with Taliban:

- **I. Security Concerns:**
- Presently there are three security concerns.
- I. Security of Indian installations in Afghanistan.
- II. Prospects of an increase in violence in Kashmir as was during the earlier reigns of Mujahideen and the Taliban.
- III. If the Taliban remains a satellite of Islamabad forever, it can jeopardize Indian policy goals.
- It would only increase Pakistani geopolitical importance.
- None of these 3 concerns can be adequately addressed without limited engagement with the Taliban.

## II. Changed International scenario:

- Almost all global powers have established communication channels with the Taliban.
- Though the Taliban has not been recognized by the global powers.

## III. To prevent the marginalization of India in international diplomacy on Afghanistan:

- UN Secretariat organized a meeting to discuss Afghanistan of what it calls the **6+2+1** group.
- It comprises 6 physical neighbors of Afghanistan –Iran, Pakistan, China, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
- ![](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ea/Afghanistan-Pakistan_border.png/800px-Afghanistan-Pakistan_border.png)
- 2 global players: USA and Russia.
- And Afghanistan itself
- India was conspicuous by its absence despite its security stakes in Afghanistan.
- Though the public reason for the non-inclusion of Inda in the 6+2+1 meeting was that India does not share physical borders with Afghanistan.
- However, India’s reluctance to engage with the Taliban has resulted in its non-inclusion in such initiatives.
- Taliban has occupied Kabul and holds the power there.
- India can not have communication channels with those in power in its immediate neighborhood only to its peril.

## The topics for the next class are the historical approach and the way forward for India in Afghanistan.